A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
