A mere two months in the past when the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
